You · Physics · 13 SEPT 2015

Advanced ground-based laser interferometers, now being commissioned, will detect gravitational waves from merging compact binaries. Rates extrapolated from binary pulsars in our galaxy suggest the advanced network should see about 40 binary neutron star mergers a year, within a plausible range of 0.4 to 400, so detections should come within the first years of operation. We are planning the observing runs on that basis.

Feynman

Detection is plausible, but the plan applies one annual rate to runs whose sensitivity and uptime will still be climbing, and ‘even allowing for the range’ fails at the low end, where a blank first year is more likely than not.

06 claims / 05 objections / 08 of 14 sources cited / lenses: Mechanism, Signal and noise, Refutation

010203040506MECHANISMOne annual rate does not describe a network still being commissioned‘Even allowing for the range’ is unjustified: the low end predicts a probable blankSIGNAL AND NOISEA cosmic rate extrapolated from a handful of Galactic binariesCommissioning-era noise raises the bar for a believable detectionREFUTATIONAs stated, the forecast forbids almost nothing in the first runs

Each square is an objection. Larger means heavier. No lens challenged claims 01, 06; that is not the same as holding.

  1. 01Advanced ground-based laser interferometers now being commissioned will detect gravitational waves from merging compact binaries.
  2. 02Merger rates extrapolated from binary pulsars observed in our galaxy are a sound basis for predicting how many binary neutron star mergers the advanced network will detect.
  3. 03The advanced network should see about 40 binary neutron star mergers a year, within a plausible range of 0.4 to 400.
  4. 04Implicit: the forecast rate applies at the sensitivity, duty cycle and coincident uptime the network will actually reach in its first observing runs, while it is still being commissioned.
  5. 05A rate of about 40 a year, even allowing for the 0.4 to 400 range, means detections should come within the first years of operation.
  6. 06The observing runs should be planned on the basis of this rate forecast.

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